Democracy Digest: Post-Election Talks Continue in Czechia as PM Fiala Bows Out

It’s been an intense week of behind-the-scenes negotiations and media speculation, with talks still ongoing about the formation of the next Czech government after last weekend’s parliamentary election. While President Petr Pavel has yet to officially entrust him with the task of forming a government, ANO leader and former PM Andrej Babis, who won the election with over 34 per cent of the vote, has been conducting coalition talks throughout the week with the conservative Motorists and far-right SPD. He met with Pavel again on Thursday morning to inform him about the progress of the negotiations, and told the press he was hopeful an agreement on the division of posts and ministries could be reached by Friday, although talks appear to have been tougher than ANO had expected. While Babis was hoping to form a single-colour minority government with the support of these two smaller movements, both SPD and the Motorists – aware that ANO cannot do without them since all other parties refused to cooperate with him – have been pushing hard for a formal coalition and top positions within both the parliament and government. As reports go, the Motorists could have at least two ministries, with the foreign and environment ministries cited as possible spoils. The SPD, whose anti-EU and anti-NATO stance puts them at odds with both Babis and President Pavel, is proving more problematic. Possible options could give SPD leader Tomio Okamura the position of speaker of the lower house, while the party might nominate some non-partisan experts to join the government as well. On Thursday, Pavel seemed adamant not to rush the process in light of several reservations about the potential next government, and said he would not appoint a Prime Minister before the new Chamber of Deputies opens its first session at the start of November. Apart from the formation of the government, another big question mark hanging over Czech politics was the fate of the prime minister, Petr Fiala, following the defeat of his Spolu coalition in the election. After days of speculation, the long-time leader of the Civic Democrats (ODS) finally answered that question on Tuesday, announcing on X that he will not run for the position of party chairman at the ODS’s next congress scheduled for January, three months earlier than planned. “Politics also means responsibility. The Spolu coalition did not win the elections. As its leader, I bear responsibility for the result. That is why I have decided not to run again for chairman of the ODS,” said Fiala, who’s been head of the conservative party since 2014 and will remain as a simple MP. “I thank everyone for their support. It was a great ride.” First deputy chairman of ODS and Fiala’s close ally, Finance Minister Zbynek Stanjura, also said he would step down from his position, an expected move after failing to defend his own parliamentary mandate. It’s also still not clear whether Spolu itself – the outgoing ruling coalition that brings ODS together with the Christian-Democrats and TOP 09 – will survive the next few months as the parties and its leaders enter opposition and go into soul-searching mode. While nothing official has been announced, speculation is abuzz about who might replace Fiala as ODS leader, with the names of Transport Minister Martin Kupka or the governor of South Bohemia, Martin Kuba, already making the rounds. In a victory for the coalition government of Donald Tusk, the European Parliament this week stripped the legal immunity of two Polish MEPs, Michal Dworczyk and Daniel Obajtek, both representing Poland’s main opposition PiS party. Tuesday’s move against the two MEPs followed a September 23 decision by the EP’s Committee on Legal Affairs to recommend the waiver, which was requested by Poland’s Justice Ministry last year. Dworczyk faces charges in Poland in connection with a leak of sensitive emails during his time at the helm of the Prime Minister’s Office during the 2015-2023 PiS-led government. Obajtek, who used to be CEO of the state energy group Orlen, is wanted by prosecutors over allegations of conducting covert surveillance of opposition politicians. Both could face up to five years in prison if found guilty of the crimes alleged. They have called the charges “absurd” and accuse the EP of “political repression” backed by the Polish government. When Tusk’s coalition replaced PiS in office in December 2023, one of its main pledges was to hold to account PiS officials for alleged abuses of power and other crimes during the former ruling party’s eight years in power. In April this year, the EP stripped the immunity of two other former PiS ministers, Mariusz Kaminski and Maciej Wasik, to face prosecution in Poland. In December 2024, Hungary granted asylum to Marcin Romanowski, a former Polish deputy justice minister accused of misusing public funds. Tensions between NATO and Russia increased further this week on a number of fronts. The Russian MP and Putin ally Alexey Zhuravlyov said in a TV interview on Wednesday that Moscow could bomb the NATO air base in Poland’s Rzeszow if the US follows through on a proposal to send long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any decision by the Trump administration to send Tomahawk missiles to Kyiv would be a “serious escalation”. Some Tomahawk missiles are capable of striking targets more than 2,000 kilometres from the launch site, allowing Ukraine to hit deep inside Russia. Meanwhile, Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence service made a series of accusations against the EU, UK and Poland, claiming – without evidence – that they are orchestrating covert operations designed to frame Moscow for acts of sabotage. The SVR alleged on October 6 that the UK was recruiting Ukrainian agents to stage a maritime attack that would appear to have been carried out by Russia using Chinese equipment. Experts warn that such disinformation could mean the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a future escalation with NATO. “There’s clearly been a surge in Russian claims of false flag operations by NATO countries, especially since late September,” Patrick Rene Haasler, an intelligence analyst at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona, told France 24. Russia has been ratcheting up its hybrid war with NATO, with provocations such as sending drones and jets into NATO airspace. Slovak PM Robert Fico and Finance Minister Ladislav Kamenicky met President Peter Pellegrini on Wednesday to discuss the government’s draft budget and the latest 2.7-billion-euro consolidation package, the former set for cabinet approval on Friday. Pellegrini confirmed he had signed the package, describing it as “a challenge for the government and the whole of society”, while blaming previous administrations for the mounting debt. The stakes are high. The draft budget for 2026-28 lays bare the fragility of Fico’s fourth government. Despite three previous rounds of fiscal consolidation, Slovakia’s deficit remains above 5 per cent of GDP. The fiscal responsibility council warned that without another package in 2027, even record tax revenues would fail to bring the deficit down. The government insists the shortfall will be 4.1 per cent next year, but its goal of 3.5 per cent by the 2027 election lacks credibility. Much of the claimed 1.3 billion euros in savings depends on uncertain assumptions, including 420 million euros in “energy aid” wrongly counted as cuts. The EU Commission has already blocked Fico’s plan to finance that aid through EU modernisation funds, leaving both the projects and the money in limbo. Meanwhile, public debt is expected to rise from 61.5 per cent of GDP this year to nearly 66 per cent by 2027. For all the tax hikes and tough rhetoric, Fico’s economic legacy risks mirroring what he inherited: a swollen deficit and a state living beyond its means. Still, Fico remains a skilled political tactician. His Smer-Hlas-SNS coalition passed the consolidation package without dissent and even managed to divide the opposition through a constitutional amendment on “two sexes”. Yet the public mood is shifting. The latest NMS poll shows both Smer and Hlas losing ground, while Progressive Slovakia, the main opposition force, approaches 25 per cent support and leads the recent polls. Two years ahead of elections, Fico’s grip on power remains intact in parliament – but increasingly shaky on the streets.   Slovakia’s ethnic Hungarian leader Laszlo Gubik has found himself unexpectedly linked to Hungarian PM Viktor Orban’s latest online mobilisation drive, aimed at expanding Fidesz’s influence in the digital space ahead of next year’s elections. The Digital Civic Circle of Hungarians Abroad, launched this summer, brings together pro-Fidesz figures from Hungary and neighbouring countries to coordinate the party’s online messaging. Its website lists Gubik, head of Slovakia’s Hungarian Alliance, as a co-founder. But he insists he never signed up. “They only asked me for a statement,” Gubik told Napunk. “I know about the initiative, but I’m not part of it.” He said he supports its broader goals but has no plans to engage with it. That denial sits awkwardly with a video circulating online in which Barna Pal Zsigmond, a Fidesz state secretary and one of the Digital Civic Circle’s initiators, introduces Gubik as a new member. In the clip, Gubik speaks about “civic cooperation without borders” and shakes Zsigmond’s hand. Asked about it, he said it was merely “a show of support, not membership”. The Digital Civic Circle is Orban’s latest effort to extend his communication network beyond Hungary’s borders. They follow earlier “Warrior Clubs”, online teams of activists tasked with amplifying Fidesz narratives. The new format is designed to include “builders”, public figures who can lend legitimacy to the ruling party’s online presence. Gubik and the Hungarian Alliance maintain long-standing ties with Fidesz and the Hungarian government, regularly attending events such as the Tusvanyos summer festival in Romania and Fidesz’s annual political picnic at Lake Balaton. Still, Gubik insists his party stays out of Hungary’s domestic politics – even as Budapest’s digital reach grows deeper into Slovakia’s Hungarian community. Several thousand people marched over the weekend at the annual Pride parade held in the university city of Pecs. Although the demonstration had been officially banned by the government, participants defied the prohibition and took to the streets in a show of solidarity. European politicians, including Terry Reintke of the European Greens and Nicu Stefanuta, vice president of the European Parliament, joined the march to express their support. The independent mayor of Pecs, Attila Peterffy, praised the courage of the participants, quoting Martin Luther King Jr and emphasising that the rally had been illegally banned by the government. “Silence is not neutrality – it is an act of surrender,” the mayor said. Police checked the IDs of some participants and issued fines to those who refused to show their faces. In contrast to the Budapest Pride event earlier this summer, which drew over 200,000 and became the largest-ever protest against the Fidesz government, the Pecs Pride was not organised by the municipality. “We believe the future of a community cannot depend on the position of a given politician,” the organisers stated. This march remains the only Pride event held outside of Budapest. The populist Orban government adopted a ban of Pride marches in March, but so far has not tried to enforce it. The main opposition Tisza party has begun introducing some of its key experts to the public. Andras Karman, an economist and finance expert, who previously served as a state secretary in 2010-2011 under a previous Fidesz government, gave an in-depth interview to 444.hu, in which he accused the ruling party of clearly mismanaging the economy, and warned that in light of a potential electoral defeat, individuals and companies close to the government have already begun funnelling money and assets abroad. If Tisza were to win the 2026 election, Karman promised a realistic budget and strict control of public procurement contracts, which he claims are currently overpriced by 30-40 per cent, helping government-linked oligarchs build their fortunes. He acknowledged a new government would likely inherit empty coffers, and that it would be extremely difficult to put the country back on a path to growth while bringing down debt at the same time. Karman also criticised the government’s economic policy as highly unpredictable in recent years: “They are playing Russian roulette with the country and with the markets – this has to stop.” He pointed out that Hungary currently pays 5 per cent of its GDP just on debt servicing, the highest in the EU. This is not because Hungary is the most indebted country, he emphasised, but because of low trust in the country and the high risk premiums demanded by investors. Karman also expressed strong support for adopting the euro. “The introduction of the euro would lend credibility, which would be reflected in lower interest rates, the curbing of inflationary expectations, and it would give investors confidence that they don’t have to factor in the risk of exchange rate fluctuations of the forint. Everyone would benefit from this,” he said. By contrast, PM Viktor Orban this week categorically ruled out Hungary’s accession to the Eurozone. In an interview, he said: “The European Union is in a phase of disintegration. It’s currently falling apart. And if there isn’t a radical transformation of the Union within the next one or two years – for which I don’t see the capability today, neither from the Brussels bureaucrats nor from the leaders of the major nation states – then this process will continue, and the European Union will become just a passing chapter in our lives. That’s why Hungary must not tie its fate more closely to the European Union than it already has. And introducing the euro would be the strongest form of such binding.” Instead, Orban showed where he sees Hungary’s future by spending the first half of this week in Azerbaijan, strengthening ties with his Turkic friends.