Democracy Digest: Report Links 110 Sabotage Attacks in Europe to Russia

At least 110 Russian-linked sabotage, or “kinetic”, incidents have struck Europe since 2022 – most often occurring in Poland (20) and France (15) but also in Czechia and Slovakia, according to a report published on Tuesday by Globsec and the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. The report uncovers how Russia has built a “state-driven crime-terror nexus”, exploiting criminal actors to advance its hybrid war against Europe. 131 individuals have been identified as being involved in the incidents, of whom at least 35 had a criminal past and were often recruited through prisons or organised crime groups. The typical recruit, it says, is a man in his 30s, often from a post-Soviet state, Russian-speaking, and living in precarious economic conditions. Most of the 110 kinetic incidents – of those, 89 were carried out successfully, 21 were foiled – were arson or vandalism targeting infrastructure and public order. Some attacks targeted dissidents, including the Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov killed in Spain and the assault on Leonid Volkov, former chief of staff to Alexei Navalny, in Vilnius. “The long-standing adage that Russian intelligence operatives and Russian criminals are ‘the same people’ still applies – except now, their networks not only smuggle illicit goods but also provide the know-how and infrastructure for Moscow’s kinetic operations against Europe,” the report says. Ahead of the weekend’s Czech parliamentary election, Wednesday evening saw one of the most anticipated pre-election debates of the campaign, with Czech PM Petr Fiala facing off against former PM and opposition leader Andrej Babis in a televised debate broadcast on CNN Prima News. “Nothing really new was said that would have the potential to fill the media space,” commented Ales Michal, political scientist from the Faculty of Social Sciences at Charles University in Prague, though he noted that debates can have a secondary effect through social media posts and videos. Contacted by the Czech News Agency, political pundits seem to agree that the debate, ultimately, won’t have a significant impact on voting intentions, even though a large bloc of undecided voters could sway the election either way. In contrast to his normal sombre and calm demeanour, PM Fiala appeared more aggressive, sometimes overly so, while his opponent at times looked weary and tired or – looking at the glass half-full, “more statesmanlike”. There were no major policy announcements. Both men will face each other again during another live set on Thursday evening on TV Nova, prompting some pundits to wonder about the benefits of holding so many televised debates that tend to offer little novelty or information to voters. Babis’s populist ANO movement has long been polling at over 30 per cent, about 10 points ahead of Fiala’s right-wing Spolu coalition. One way or another, it appears unlikely either of the two leading blocs can win an outright majority on October 3-4, and post-ballot coalition talks to form a stable government will probably be an uphill battle. Under a proposal put forward by Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky, the Czech government announced this week that holders of Russian diplomatic and service passports will be banned, with immediate effect, from entering the Czech Republic at the country’s external Schengen borders (meaning all its international airports). The move evidently does not apply to members of the Russian embassy in Prague or to other Moscow envoys accredited in Czechia, nor to those who are only passing through the Czech Republic on their way to the country where they’re accredited. Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova described it as “yet another crazy measure”. Lipavsky and the Czech authorities have long been pushing for the EU to take further measures to limit the ability of Russian diplomats – many of whom are believed to be members of the intelligence services – to freely roam the borderless Schengen Area at a time when Moscow is waging a hybrid war against Europe. “I think there is no reason for us to make it easier for them to travel around Europe. Schengen is meant to serve Europeans,” Lipavsky said. The Czech push to impose restrictions have so far failed to gain enough support among EU capitals, although the EU’s diplomatic service last week suggested that Russian diplomats could be required to declare all their trips and travels within the bloc. Doubts remain about how this would be implemented in practice, however. Slovakia’s parliament on September 26 approved a contentious constitutional overhaul by the narrowest possible margin, after several opposition MPs unexpectedly backed the government’s bill, delivering the 90 votes required for passage. The amendment – criticised by experts, civil rights groups, the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission and the European Commission – enshrines references to “national identity”, retains sovereignty above all in matters of cultural-ethical questions, defines sex strictly as male or female on biological grounds, strengthens parental control over sex education, bans surrogacy, and ties most adoptions to marriage. It also introduces an equal-pay clause and empowers the state to police school curricula determined to be against the constitution. Teachers, for example, warn that the provisions on sex education could create “anarchy”. The package, which will come into force in November after being signed by the president, was driven by Robert Fico’s Smer party alongside coalition partners Hlas and SNS, with support from most MPs in the Christian Democrats (KDH). It passed only after two MPs from Igor Matovic’s conservative Hnutie Slovensko, Marek Krajci and Rastislav Kratky, voted in favour, joining Richard Vasecka of the Christian Union faction. Krajci justified his decision by saying “it is not a problem for God to use even Robert Fico to do good”. Matovic denounced the move as a “betrayal”, claiming he learned of their plan minutes before the vote. Unlike Krajci, Kratky has been expelled from the party and its caucus. Opposition leaders reacted fiercely. Michal Simecka of Progressive Slovakia said the defections “end any talk” of future cooperation with Matovic’s party. The SaS leader, Branislav Grohling, described it as a “black day” that risks undermining Slovakia’s EU commitments. The KDH, however, hailed the result as a defence of human dignity, calling it one of its greatest successes – comparable, it claimed, to Slovakia joining the EU or NATO – while dismissing speculation that Smer is attempting to poach its voters. Fico celebrated what he called a “historic” victory that could inspire other countries. “This is a big dam against progressives that we have built,” he said, adding that Smer would mark the result “with a bit of alcohol”. Fico also revealed he had asked “influential people” to speak to Kratky and Krajci before the vote, but did not say who. Some suggested figures from the Catholic Church, which applauded the amendment’s adoption.   Slovakia’s ruling coalition is facing fresh turmoil after a senior government minister accused President Peter Pellegrini of plotting to topple PM Fico and replace his cabinet with a temporary caretaker government. Samuel Migal, minister for investment and a former member of Pellegrini’s Hlas party, alleged on Wednesday that the president was planning to “bring down” the government after returning from a trip to the US. Without presenting any evidence, Migal claimed Pellegrini would pressure Fico to dismiss him, which could break the coalition agreement and trigger the government’s collapse. The president’s office immediately rejected the accusation, calling it “an absolute lie”. It emphasised that only parliament has the power to dismiss a government. Pellegrini, who has recently been the target of repeated attacks from the nationalist SNS party and its leader Andrej Danko, accused Migal of inventing enemies to hide his own shortcomings. Hlas, Pellegrini’s own party, also dismissed the claims. Party chairman Matus Sutaj Estok labeled Migal’s statements “fabricated accusations”, pointing out that Migal’s ministerial post exists only thanks to the support of Fico’s Smer party. “It makes me wonder if he is not the one actually trying to bring down the government,” Estok said. Parliamentary speaker Richard Rasi added that Migal was spreading conspiracy theories because “he has no results to show”. The dispute highlights the fragile state of Fico’s coalition, which depends on the uneasy partnership between Smer, Hlas and the far-right SNS. Danko, who has repeatedly attacked Pellegrini personally and politically, welcomed Migal’s remarks as “a good analysis”, raising suspicions that he may be aligning tactically against the president. For now, opposition parties appear unwilling to exploit the tensions, preferring to let Fico bear the political burden of unpopular austerity measures expected in the near future. Drama in Warsaw on Monday as Polish police removed the ultraconservative former justice minister and chief prosector, Zbigniew Ziobro, from a plane at the airport and escorted him to testify before a parliamentary commission looking into the use of Pegasus spyware by the former PiS government. This commission was set up by the incoming coalition government of Donald Tusk following its victory in the 2023 general election to inquire into the full extent of how the software was used to spy not only on criminals but also PiS’s enemies like journalists and opposition politicians. There has since been some spectacular testimony, including from former PiS ministers and heads of intelligence agencies, but until this week Ziobro – widely seen as instrumental in the purchase of the Israeli technology – had refused multiple times to appear, citing his treatment for cancer and his claim that the commission was established illegally. As police detained him after his plane from Brussels landed, Ziobro could be heard telling them that their actions were unlawful. During his subsequent eight-hour testimony, Ziobro was unrepentant, confirming he had been one of the initiators of the purchase of Pegasus during his time as justice minister. “I’m glad I did it, and I would do it again,” Ziobro was quoted by the Polish Press Agency as saying. “I decided that the state should have a tool to crack the smartphones of people who commit crimes and pose a real threat to the state.” Ziobro admitted being aware the spyware was used in criminal investigations linked to two politicians with ties to Tusk’s ruling KO party, but described those as examples of the Polish state using “modern tools, such as Pegasus, for detecting and preventing crimes”. He also defended the decision to use almost 6 million euros from Poland’s Justice Fund, which was designed to prevent crime and support victims, to acquire the Pegasus system for the Central Anti-Corruption Bureau, because the CBA “had certain financial problems”. Further revelations in connection with the explosions that put the Nord Stream pipeline, which carried Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea, out of action shortly after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Suspects in the sophisticated sabotage operation included the Kremlin, though subsequent investigations led German investigators in August to identify seven people, all believed to be Ukrainian nationals, of allegedly being involved in carrying out the bombings. On Tuesday, German prosecutors said a Ukrainian diver, named only as Volodymyr Z., was arrested in a Polish town not far from Warsaw on a European arrest warrant issued by a German court. Italian police had already arrested a Ukrainian man, Serhii Kuznietsov, suspected of co-ordinating the attack. Another suspect, Vsevolod K., is believed to have since been killed while serving with Ukraine’s armed forces. The seven are thought to have travelled through Poland on false passports to rent a yacht, the Andromeda, in the northern German city of Rostock before setting out on the Baltic Sea to blow up the subsea pipelines, irreparably damaging three out of four of them. Germany is seeking Volodymyr Z.’s extradition to stand trial on charges of sabotage, though his attorney Tymoteusz Paprocki vowed a “very active” defence against this. The lawyer told TVN24 that his client would not comment on whether he had played any role in sabotaging Nord Stream, but argued that, given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, damaging infrastructure owned by a Russian state-controlled company like Gazprom should not be considered a “crime”, as it is funding the war. An extradition ruling is expected by mid-October, local media reported. Hungarian-Ukrainian relations took another turn for the worse this week after Kyiv accused Hungary of sending reconnaissance drones across the border. The Hungarian government did not completely deny the allegation, with Prime Minister Viktor Orban trying to downplay the incident. “Ukraine is not at war with Hungary; it is at war with Russia. It should be concerned with the drones on its eastern border,” Orban said on a pro-government podcast called “Harcosok Oraja” (Hour of Warriors). In a swipe at Kyiv, Orban added: “I believe my ministers, but let’s say it actually flew a few metres over there – so what? Ukraine is not an independent country; Ukraine is not a sovereign country; Ukraine is financed by us – the West gives it money, weapons.” Tensions spilled out into the online world, with both countries blocking each other’s news websites. Earlier this month, Ukraine announced it would restrict access to several of the most pro-Russian Hungarian sites, including origo.hu, one of Hungary’s largest outlets. In response, Hungary retaliated this week by blocking 12 Ukrainian news portals, such as European Pravda. The diplomatic chill was also evident at the recent EU summit in Copenhagen, where Orban stood alone in opposing any progress on Ukraine’s EU accession. Although there had been speculation in Brussels about a workaround to sidestep Orban’s expected veto, that idea was eventually shelved. The decision has now been postponed until the next EU summit at the end of October. Orban also announced the launch of a national petition opposing Ukraine’s EU membership – a topic likely to be a central campaign theme in the run-up to the April 2026 general election. As of Wednesday, all mothers of three children in Hungary are now exempt from paying personal income tax, Orban announced on Facebook. The measure was first unveiled during his February “State of the Nation” speech. Mothers of four have already enjoyed tax-exempt status since 2020. According to Hungary’s Central Statistical Office, an average mother of three could save up to 100,000 forints (about 250 euros) a month thanks to the tax break. According to estimates from portfolio.hu, the initiative will cost around 200 billion forints annually and could benefit up to 250,000 families. The government also plans to gradually extend the exemption to mothers of two starting January 2026, although this is seen putting a significant strain on the state budget. The latest measure is in line with Fidesz’s longstanding aim to encourage larger families and address the country’s steep demographic decline. The announcement comes at a time of heated debate between Fidesz and the leading opposition Tisza party over tax policy. The government accuses Tisza of secretly planning tax increases if it wins the 2026 election – a claim the opposition denies, vowing instead to preserve existing tax breaks.